Cross-Market Thesis

“US-Iran deal timing arbitrage”

This trader is expressing a view that US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?, US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?, US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?, and 8 more are correlated outcomes, committing $73,669 to this thesis across 11 prediction markets on Polymarket.

T
Trader_0x35bbb71% win rate

Total

$73,669

Markets

11

Positions

  1. 1US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
    $1,304 @ 5¢
  2. 2US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
    $2,235 @ 89¢
  3. 3US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
    $1,718 @ 51¢
  4. 4US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
    $3,732 @ 64¢
  5. 5US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
    $2,258 @ 72¢
  6. 6US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
    $7,981 @ 39¢
  7. 7US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
    $4,368 @ 19¢
  8. 8US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
    $43,602 @ 83¢
  9. 9US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
    $1,609 @ 68¢
  10. 10US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?
    $1,713 @ 59¢
  11. 11US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?
    $3,150 @ 45¢
US-Iran deal timing arbitrage — Cross-Market Analysis | PolySpotter