Cross-Market Thesis

“Iran deal timing arbitrage”

This trader is expressing a view that US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?, US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?, US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?, and 6 more are correlated outcomes, committing $17,917 to this thesis across 9 prediction markets on Polymarket.

T
Trader_0xa8c6368% win rate

Total

$17,917

Markets

9

Positions

  1. 1US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
    $1,044 @ 11¢
  2. 2US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
    $2,040 @ 17¢
  3. 3US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
    $3,188 @ 47¢
  4. 4US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
    $1,200 @ 24¢
  5. 5US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
    $1,258 @ 72¢
  6. 6US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
    $5,493 @ 33¢
  7. 7US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
    $1,005 @ 67¢
  8. 8US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
    $1,308 @ 13¢
  9. 9US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
    $1,380 @ 20¢