85% winner buys NO
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A highly profitable 85% win-rate serial cross-market trader bought No, taking a sizable share of quiet 24h volume on a plausible geopolitical market.
Total
$2,402
Trades
1
Win Rate
85%
Wallet P&L
+$1,498,481
Analysis
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $1.5M lifetime.
- They are a proven cross-market trader across 29 events, with $216K tracked in similar positioning.
- This $2.4K No buy was 82% of recent 24h volume, suggesting strong conviction in a quieter market.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 70¢
Detected May 4, 2026 at 5:50 AM