Last-minute No hit
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 19 12:00 PM ET to May 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Wallet sold the 240-259 tweet range minutes before resolution and was immediately proven right, though its overall track record is weak.
Total
$4,484
Trades
2
Win Rate
68%
Wallet P&L
+$63,818
Analysis
- The bettor sold Yes just 2.6 minutes before resolution, effectively buying No around 19¢.
- The market has since moved to No at 100%, so this was a correctly timed late fade.
- This wallet is profitable overall, up about $10.5k, but has only won 2 of 12 resolved bets.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 19¢
Detected May 26, 2026 at 4:10 PM