New repeat No bettor

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A very new wallet is repeatedly placing sizable No bets across related Hormuz warship markets, with this $4.3k add coming at high conviction despite limited track record.
Total
$4,322
Trades
2
Win Rate
80%
Wallet P&L
-$115
Analysis
- This 13-day-old wallet has been flagged 11 times, with $27.9k in notable bets already.
- It bought $4.3k of No here at an average 88¢, adding to a broader related-market thesis.
- The bet is large relative to the alert’s measured recent activity, suggesting concentrated conviction on No.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 88¢
Detected June 15, 2026 at 2:21 PM