Linked whale buying NO

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A repeat-flagged wallet from a known linked-wallet cluster made a $13.8k NO bet that was large relative to recent activity on a geopolitically meaningful market.
Total
$13,791
Trades
1
Win Rate
100%
Wallet P&L
+$8
Analysis
- A linked-wallet group is positioning on the same side, with this wallet putting $13.8k into NO.
- The bet was over 5x the market’s flagged recent volume, suggesting strong conviction in a quieter trading window.
- Entry at 78¢ means the bettor is backing no China–Philippines clash before 2027 despite recent YES momentum.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 78¢
Detected June 18, 2026 at 9:24 PM