Profitable event-thesis bettor
If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a long profitable history and 75% win rate is buying No at 83¢ in a three-market Iran thesis, suggesting a coordinated event view worth tracking.
Total
$2,253
Trades
1
Win Rate
75%
Wallet P&L
+$161,660
Analysis
- This bettor has won 75% of 986 resolved trades and is up $176k lifetime
- They have traded 164 related markets across 80 events, which suggests a repeatable event-driven process
- They bought No at 83¢ while the market still implies a 16% chance of Yes, adding to a broader three-market Iran view
Copy Trade
Buy No at 83¢
Detected April 4, 2026 at 9:36 PM