Whale-sized No bet in thin market
Trump is scheduled to hold a cabinet meeting on July 31, 2026 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ytbAVpDBXs&t=62s). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says the listed term during the cabinet meeting scheduled for July 31, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about Trump's cabinet meeting, scheduled for July 31, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be audio/video of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
A large No position dominates this thin market, making it a notable high-conviction trade despite the wallet's lack of a clear odds-adjusted edge.
Total
$1,087
Trades
1
Win Rate
61%
Wallet P&L
+$299,800
Analysis
- The $1,087 No bet was over 26 times the detected 24-hour volume in a thin order book.
- The trader has placed $22.9M across 196 markets, showing substantial experience, though a 60% win rate is not clearly exceptional at an average winning price of 86%.
- No was bought at 74¢ and has since risen to about 86%, reinforcing the direction of the trade.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 74¢
Detected July 28, 2026 at 11:10 AM