Whale buys long-shot Alito retirement
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
A large equivalent Yes position in a quiet Supreme Court market is notable, though the wallet’s modest win rate limits confidence.
Total
$14,475
Trades
1
Win Rate
52%
Wallet P&L
+$513,213
Analysis
- A $14,475 trade is equivalent to buying Yes at 12%, over 3.7 times the market’s recent 24-hour volume.
- The wallet is positioning across two related markets, suggesting a broader thesis about Alito’s retirement prospects.
- The bettor is profitable overall with $929,000 in reported gains, but a 57% win rate is not especially strong evidence of a sharp edge.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 12¢
Detected August 4, 2026 at 5:43 PM