Coordinated No flow in soccer market

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 9, 2026 If Manchester City wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market will settle based on the final score of the match, regardless of format (e.g. two halves totaling 90 minutes plus stoppage time, or four periods totaling 120 minutes). The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Three-wallet No buying and a 92x volume surge make this a notable coordinated sports-market thesis, though the trader’s edge is not clearly proven and No has since fallen sharply.
Total
$1,200
Trades
1
Win Rate
69%
Wallet P&L
+$287,724
Analysis
- Three wallets bought No for a combined $7,341 during a 92x historical volume spike.
- The wallet is a substantial long-term winner, up $219,094 across 513 resolved trades, but its 65% win rate does not clearly beat its 75¢ average winning price.
- No was bought at 54¢ and is now around 24¢, so the original thesis has not been confirmed and the trade carries substantial caution.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 54¢
Detected August 9, 2026 at 12:47 PM