Serial bettor makes concentrated No bet

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A serial cross-market trader made a concentrated No bet representing 71% of daily volume in a thin political market, though the wallet's broad track record shows only modest edge.
Total
$1,096
Trades
1
Win Rate
73%
Wallet P&L
+$47,518
Analysis
- This trader has placed $186,000 across 50 events and 62 markets, with 1,787 resolved bets.
- The $1,096 No position accounts for 71% of the market's 24-hour volume and was placed in a relatively thin market.
- The wallet bought No at 72¢, implying a 72% chance Brennan is not arrested before 2027.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 72¢
Detected August 17, 2026 at 11:01 AM