Serial sharp fading the draw

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 18, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 83% win rate sold Draw at 29%, signaling a potentially strong No position despite the market’s subsequent move higher.
Total
$2,900
Trades
1
Win Rate
82%
Wallet P&L
+$713,328
Analysis
- This bettor wins 83% of trades across 255 resolved positions and is up $626,049.
- The wallet trades across 182 events, providing much stronger evidence than a one-off sports wager.
- Selling Draw at 29¢ is equivalent to buying No at 71¢, opposing the market’s 38% Draw price.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 71¢
Detected August 18, 2026 at 8:15 PM