Profitable cross-market bettor

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An established, highly profitable bettor made a concentrated bearish position across three related markets, though the wallet's edge over its typical entry odds is modest and the market has since moved against this trade.
Total
$4,120
Trades
1
Win Rate
77%
Wallet P&L
+$130,631
Analysis
- This bettor is up $131,615 across 94 resolved markets with a 77% win rate.
- They committed $26,451 across three related markets, including a $4,120 sell of Yes in this extremely thin market.
- The original trade implies buying No around 75¢, but Yes has since risen to 54%, so the position has moved against them.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 75¢
Detected August 25, 2026 at 5:53 PM