Serial cross-market trader buys No

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A prolific serial trader made a meaningful bearish trade in a quiet market, though the wallet’s overall record does not clearly demonstrate an edge at its typical entry prices.
Total
$1,200
Trades
1
Win Rate
83%
Wallet P&L
+$63,441
Analysis
- This wallet has traded 235 markets across 115 events, with 1,007 resolved bets and an 83% win rate.
- A $1,200 sell of Yes at 85¢ implies a fresh bearish view on the Democratic outcome in a market with no reported 24-hour volume.
- The trader’s 93¢ average winning entry price makes the historical record less compelling than the raw win rate suggests.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 15¢
Detected August 30, 2026 at 5:11 PM