Serial trader scaling into No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI. A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.
A highly experienced serial trader added $5,646 to an existing No position in a relatively thin market, though the bet is less compelling because their 94% win rate comes at an average winning price of 97%.
Total
$5,646
Trades
1
Win Rate
94%
Wallet P&L
+$326,633
Analysis
- This bettor has won 94% of 1,442 resolved trades and is up $325,790 lifetime.
- The $5,646 purchase was roughly three times the market's reported 24-hour volume and increased an existing No position.
- Buying No at 68¢ suggests the trader sees the outcome as more likely than the market's 69% current estimate, but the position is already partially established.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 68¢
Detected September 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM