Part of: Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?

This prediction market asks whether the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) will award a Millennium Prize or officially declare one of the six remaining unsolved problems solved by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027. The market currently tracks $2,400 in smart money and resolves based solely on an official CMI declaration; recent signals include both Yes and No activity.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI. A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,064.

Categories: Culture, Science

Notable Trades

17-wallet funded cluster backs Yes

A 17-wallet funded cluster has deployed over $10,000 around this event, with this wallet selling No at an effective 35¢ Yes entry despite only a modest individual track record.

  • Seventeen linked wallets share a funder and have placed $10,553 across this event, a strong coordinated-conviction signal.
  • This trade sells No at 65¢, equivalent to buying Yes at 35¢ while the market is already up 14.5% over the past week.
  • The individual wallet is highly experienced with 1,015 resolved bets and $942,561 in lifetime profit, though its 53% win rate is not independently sharp.

$2,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 53%

Serial trader scaling into No

A highly experienced serial trader added $5,646 to an existing No position in a relatively thin market, though the bet is less compelling because their 94% win rate comes at an average winning price of 97%.

  • This bettor has won 94% of 1,442 resolved trades and is up $325,790 lifetime.
  • The $5,646 purchase was roughly three times the market's reported 24-hour volume and increased an existing No position.
  • Buying No at 68¢ suggests the trader sees the outcome as more likely than the market's 69% current estimate, but the position is already partially established.

$1,018 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Serial trader scaling into No

A highly experienced serial trader added $5,646 to an existing No position in a relatively thin market, though the bet is less compelling because their 94% win rate comes at an average winning price of 97%.

  • This bettor has won 94% of 1,442 resolved trades and is up $325,790 lifetime.
  • The $5,646 purchase was roughly three times the market's reported 24-hour volume and increased an existing No position.
  • Buying No at 68¢ suggests the trader sees the outcome as more likely than the market's 69% current estimate, but the position is already partially established.

$5,646 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Top Holders

  1. 0xf0d5...c665 No, $11,351 (94% win rate)
  2. 0x1543...baaf Yes, $11,301 (37% win rate)
  3. 0x40cf...d21d No, $6,000 (47% win rate)
  4. 0xc0ee...ec14 Yes, $5,606 (51% win rate)
  5. 0x8341...de89 No, $4,397 (53% win rate)
  6. 0x22e4...ef1c Yes, $4,205 (59% win rate)
  7. 0x24fb...973e Yes, $3,030 (73% win rate)
  8. 0xa49b...7054 No, $2,665 (67% win rate)
  9. 0x3232...84b3 Yes, $2,400 (63% win rate)
  10. 0xe9b2...62f5 Yes, $1,675

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Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?

476dWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?$9,064 tracked3 signalsCultureScience
Yes
16¢
No
85¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI. A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.

Price History — “No
86¢
68¢
50¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?

3d ago

$2,400 on Yes at 35¢

35¢16¢19¢

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?

3d ago

$1,018 on No at 68¢

68¢85¢17¢

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?

4d ago

$5,646 on No at 68¢

68¢85¢17¢

Related Theses