Three-wallet No conviction surge

In the upcoming game, scheduled for September 26, 2026 If Spain wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Three wallets committed $64.9K to No while a sharp price move pushed Spain's implied win probability down to 20%, though much of the flow added to existing positions.
Total
$64,865
Trades
14
Analysis
- Three wallets bought $64,865 of No, with the flow coinciding with a 47-point rise in No's price.
- One wallet has a 71% win rate across more than 93,000 resolved trades and added to an existing No position.
- Most entries were around 83¢, implying these bettors viewed Spain's win probability as materially below 17%; the market now prices No near 80¢.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 83¢
Detected September 26, 2026 at 7:43 PM