Large buyer behind a sharp Luka repricing

This market refers to the tennis match between Luka Pavlovic and Ilia Simakin in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 1:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luka Pavlovic' if Luka Pavlovic advances against Ilia Simakin. This market will resolve to 'Ilia Simakin' if Ilia Simakin advances against Luka Pavlovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A $4.2K two-tranche buy coincided with Luka Pavlovic odds rising 28 percentage points, making the move notable despite no clear odds-adjusted edge in the wallet's record.
Total
$8,347
Trades
3
Win Rate
55%
Wallet P&L
+$8,010,051
Analysis
- The wallet bought Luka twice for about $4,200 as the price jumped from 34¢ to 64¢.
- Its 55% win rate across 54,000 resolved bets and 59¢ average win price do not show a clear odds-adjusted edge.
Copy Trade
Buy Luka Pavlovic at 59¢
Detected October 5, 2026 at 7:49 AM