Profitable bettor adds to quiet-market No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A profitable, high-volume bettor added a $3,750 No position in a very quiet market, though their 94% win rate is close to their 92% average winning price and does not establish a strong edge.
Total
$3,750
Trades
1
Win Rate
94%
Wallet P&L
+$35,689
Analysis
- A bettor with 321 resolved trades and $35,274 in profit added another $3,750 to No.
- The trade was over 21 times the market’s 24-hour volume, and No has since moved from 84¢ to about 92¢.
- Their 94% win rate is close to their 92% average winning price, so the track record alone suggests limited edge.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 84¢
Detected October 21, 2026 at 8:13 AM