Profitable event-thesis trader
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A profitable, highly active cross-market trader with 601 resolved bets is expressing a broader event thesis across 6 related Claude 5 markets, and this trade translates to buying No around 77¢.
Total
$3,089
Trades
1
Win Rate
67%
Wallet P&L
+$258,487
Analysis
- This bettor has a strong track record: 67% wins across 601 resolved bets and about $234k profit.
- They have put $61k across 6 related Claude 5 markets, which looks like a coordinated event-level view rather than a one-off trade.
- This sale of Yes at 23¢ is equivalent to buying No at 77¢, showing conviction that a public Claude 5 release by May 2026 is less likely than the market implies.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 77¢
Detected April 11, 2026 at 5:29 AM