Large macro bet in a quiet market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
A $2,218 equivalent Yes position is unusually large relative to the market’s $117 daily volume and thin liquidity, though the wallet’s track record is not especially strong.
Total
$2,218
Trades
1
Win Rate
54%
Wallet P&L
+$105,296
Analysis
- The $2,218 trade is about 19 times the market’s 24-hour volume, signaling notable conviction.
- The wallet has a long history and is profitable overall, but its 52% win rate is not a strong edge signal.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 24¢
Detected October 28, 2026 at 7:19 PM