Sharp bettor fades favorite

This market refers to the tennis match between Nicolai Budkov Kjaer and Francesco Maestrelli in the Madrid Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for April 20, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nicolai Budkov Kjaer' if Nicolai Budkov Kjaer advances against Francesco Maestrelli. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Maestrelli' if Francesco Maestrelli advances against Nicolai Budkov Kjaer. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A high-volume sports bettor with a 73% win rate sold the favorite at 60¢ in a market that had seen almost no prior activity, making this a notable contrarian entry on Francesco Maestrelli.
Total
$2,409
Trades
1
Win Rate
73%
Wallet P&L
+$330,749
Analysis
- This bettor wins 73% of resolved trades and is up $334k across 655 bets
- They sold the 60¢ favorite in a market with just $84 of prior 24-hour volume, a strong conviction move
- The copy-trade equivalent is buying Francesco Maestrelli around 40¢, implying they see the underdog as mispriced
Copy Trade
Buy Francesco Maestrelli at 40¢
Detected April 20, 2026 at 1:14 PM