National Bank Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Learner Tien
5 signals across 2 markets · $106,113 tracked · resolves Aug 18, 2026
Follow the National Bank Open matchup between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Learner Tien, including the available Set 1 winner market. PolySpotter is tracking $4,000 in smart money across the event, with a sharp bettor recently scaling into Tien.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Linked cluster backed Learner Tien
A linked 12-wallet cluster committed $54,317 to Learner Tien alongside multiple profitable bettors, though the market has already moved to 100%.
$54,317Score: 11.6 - Four-wallet cluster backs Daniel Merida
Four wallets, including a proven 79% winner, added $8,895 to Daniel Merida Aguilar amid a 30.7x volume spike and an 18-point price move.
$35,991Score: 7.5 - Sharp bettor scaling into Tien
A proven 90% bettor with substantial positive edge is adding $4,000 to an existing Tien position in an extremely low-volume market.
$4,000Wallet win rate: 91%Score: 5.5 - Sharp bettor scales into Learner Tien
A proven, highly profitable serial trader is adding $3,305 to an existing Learner Tien position at 65¢.
$3,305Wallet win rate: 78%Score: 5.3 - New wallet scaling into Learner Tien
A very new wallet is repeatedly scaling into Learner Tien alongside a 124.8x pre-event volume spike, though its proven record is still limited.
$8,502Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 4.8
Top wallets in this event
- 0x942a20…fda2$8,502 · 1 market · 1 alert · 67% wins
- 0xf1bf65…492e$4,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 91% wins
- 0x3f985e…0aa1$3,305 · 1 market · 1 alert · 78% wins
FAQs
What are the Aguilar vs Tien prediction-market odds?
The live Polymarket odds for the Aguilar vs Tien event and its Set 1 winner market are shown on this page and may change as traders update their positions.
What outcomes are traded for Aguilar vs Tien?
This event includes a Set 1 winner market covering Daniel Merida Aguilar and Learner Tien. The broader match resolves based on which player advances.
What is smart money doing in the Aguilar vs Tien market?
PolySpotter has tracked $4,000 in smart money across the event. The latest alert reports that a sharp bettor is scaling into Learner Tien.
When is the Aguilar vs Tien market scheduled to resolve?
The match is scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, with the event set to resolve by August 18, 2026 at 2:00 PM UTC, subject to the market rules.