Event

August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)

1 signal across 1 market · $1,234 tracked · resolves Sep 1, 2026

This Polymarket event tracks whether the August 2026 global land-ocean temperature anomaly will fall between 1.42°C and 1.45°C. The market resolves using NOAA’s Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index when the August figure is released, with recent smart money activity adding to No.

Markets (1)

  1. Will global temperature increase by between 1.42ºC and 1.45ºC in August 2026?1 signal · $1,234 tracked

Top trades across all markets

  1. Serial trader adds to No

    A serial cross-market trader made a large additional No bet in a thin, wide-spread market, though their historical win rate does not clearly exceed the average odds paid.

    $1,234Wallet win rate: 71%Score: 4.7

Top wallets in this event

  1. 0x118689051b$1,234 · 1 market · 1 alert · 71% wins

More on this event

FAQs

What are the August 2026 temperature prediction market odds?

The live Polymarket odds show the market-implied probability that August 2026 global temperature increase will be between 1.42°C and 1.45°C. Odds can change as traders update their positions.

What outcome is being traded in this event?

This event contains one child market: whether the August 2026 global land-ocean temperature anomaly will be between 1.42°C and 1.45°C.

What is smart money doing on the August 2026 temperature market?

PolySpotter has tracked $1,234 in smart money across the event and one signal. The latest alert reports that a serial trader added to No.

When will the August 2026 temperature market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve by September 1, 2026, after the August 2026 temperature figure becomes available. It uses the reported value at release, even if that figure is revised later.

What source determines the market result?

Resolution is based on the August 2026 value in the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, specifically the table titled “GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius.”