Part of: August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
Will global temperature increase by between 1.42ºC and 1.45ºC in August 2026?
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,234.
Categories: Science, Weather, Global Temp
Notable Trades
Serial trader adds to No
A serial cross-market trader made a large additional No bet in a thin, wide-spread market, though their historical win rate does not clearly exceed the average odds paid.
- This trader has participated across 35 markets and 29 events, with $114,875 in total activity.
- The $1,234 bet exceeded the market’s 24-hour volume in a thin market with a 14-point bid-ask spread.
- The trader is adding to an existing No position at 74¢, while No currently trades near 79¢.
$1,234 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
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