PolySpotter

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Event

Fed Decision in October?

8 signals across 2 markets · $135,530 tracked · resolves Oct 29, 2026

This PolySpotter event tracks Polymarket predictions for how the Federal Reserve may change the federal funds rate after its October 2026 FOMC meeting, including the market for a 25-basis-point increase. Smart money activity totals $15,322 across one signal, with a sharp trader leading coordinated No buying.

Markets (2)

  1. Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?5 signals · $96,956 tracked
  2. Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?3 signals · $38,574 tracked

Top trades across all markets

  1. Linked cluster scaling into Yes

    A five-wallet linked cluster is adding over $10,000 to Yes amid a massive volume spike, while this trader has a broad 72% win rate across 593 resolved bets.

    $1,963Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 9.1
  2. Coordinated rate-hike buyers

    Four wallets deployed $10.7K toward Yes, including a highly profitable 86% winner, while a 252x volume spike and coordinated positioning support a meaningful rate-hike thesis.

    $16,872Score: 9.1
  3. Six-wallet Yes accumulation spike

    A sudden $50.9K one-sided Yes cluster and 448x volume spike signal meaningful coordinated positioning despite mixed individual track records.

    $50,907Score: 8.7
  4. Serial sharp bettor buys No

    A highly profitable serial trader with an 81% win rate made a concentrated $6,380 No bet amid a major volume spike and coordinated No buying.

    $6,380Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 6.8
  5. Sharp trader leads coordinated No buying

    A sharp, highly profitable cross-market trader bought No alongside two wallets exiting Yes, creating a $15.3K one-sided move during a 203x volume spike.

    $15,322Score: 6.7
  6. Established wallets scale into No

    A sharp, high-volume positioning burst is pushing several established wallets toward No, though some traders were already holding positions.

    $17,332Score: 6.1
  7. 81% winner adds to Yes

    A highly experienced serial trader with an 81% win rate is adding $2,000 to an existing Yes position despite recent price declines.

    $2,000Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 4.3
  8. Profitable bettor scales into No

    A profitable bettor with a meaningful track record is adding $24.8K to an existing No position amid a 136.7x volume spike.

    $24,754Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 3.4

Top wallets in this event

  1. 0x05f6cb…25a1$24,754 · 1 market · 1 alert · 67% wins
  2. 0xde7be6…5f4b$6,380 · 1 market · 1 alert · 79% wins
  3. 0x4f0eae…0200$2,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 80% wins
  4. 0x35bbba…009b$1,963 · 1 market · 1 alert · 70% wins

More on this event

Cross-market thesis
Fed won't cut rates in October

FAQs

What are the Fed October 2026 prediction-market odds?

Polymarket traders are pricing the possible outcomes for the Federal Reserve’s target rate after the October 2026 meeting, including whether rates rise by 25 basis points. Check the live market for current probabilities.

What is smart money doing on the October Fed market?

PolySpotter has tracked $15,322 in smart money across the event. The latest alert says a sharp trader led coordinated No buying on the 25-basis-point rate-hike outcome.

What does this Fed prediction market resolve on?

The event resolves based on the change in the upper bound of the federal funds target range compared with its level before the Federal Reserve’s October 2026 meeting.

When does the October 2026 Fed market resolve?

The event is scheduled to resolve by October 28, 2026, at 23:59 UTC, following the Federal Reserve’s October meeting.