Part of: Fed Decision in October?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $96,956.
Categories: Global Rates, Economic Policy, Trump, Kevin Warsh, fomc, Macro Indicators, Fed, Economy, Fed Rates, Jerome Powell
Notable Trades
Profitable bettor scales into No
A profitable bettor with a meaningful track record is adding $24.8K to an existing No position amid a 136.7x volume spike.
- This bettor wins 64% of 25 resolved trades and is up $495,589 lifetime.
- They added $24,754 to No at 47¢, building on a $121,126 existing position.
- The market saw a 136.7x spike in trading activity, supporting the significance of the positioning.
$24,754 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
81% winner adds to Yes
A highly experienced serial trader with an 81% win rate is adding $2,000 to an existing Yes position despite recent price declines.
- This bettor has won 81% of 160 resolved trades and is up $61,696 lifetime.
- They added $2,000 to an existing Yes position at 55¢, signaling continued conviction rather than a one-off wager.
- The market has fallen 13% over the past week, making this an informed-looking purchase against recent momentum.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
Linked cluster scaling into Yes
A five-wallet linked cluster is adding over $10,000 to Yes amid a massive volume spike, while this trader has a broad 72% win rate across 593 resolved bets.
- Five wallets, including two sharing a funder, bought Yes with more than $10,000 combined.
- The market saw a 487.8x surge versus its historical trading volume, suggesting unusually concentrated interest.
- This serial cross-market trader has a 72% win rate across 593 resolved bets and is adding to an existing Yes position.
$1,963 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Six-wallet Yes accumulation spike
A sudden $50.9K one-sided Yes cluster and 448x volume spike signal meaningful coordinated positioning despite mixed individual track records.
- Six wallets committed $50,907 to Yes, including a $25,000 purchase at 50¢.
- Trading volume was 448 times the historical average, while the market had recently fallen 12% over a week.
- One participating cross-market trader has an 88% win rate across 1,159 resolved bets, though several wallets are also hedged with No positions.
$50,907 on Yes
Established wallets scale into No
A sharp, high-volume positioning burst is pushing several established wallets toward No, though some traders were already holding positions.
- Three wallets put $13,506 behind No, including a bettor with 803 resolved trades and $870,000 lifetime profit.
- The activity was roughly 981 times the historical volume baseline, while No rose from entries near 35–38¢ to 42¢.
- Several wallets already held positions, so this is increased conviction rather than entirely fresh information.
$17,332 on No
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $13,204,892
- 0x2b2d...1031 — No, $3,781,890 (83% win rate)
- 0x4506...c54f — No, $1,403,123
- 0xece0...a64d — No, $300,541
- 0x2568...ef92 — No, $219,369 (51% win rate)
- 0x05f6...25a1 — No, $193,393 (67% win rate)
- 0x7cf9...2798 — No, $134,822 (61% win rate)
- 0xeee1...3e28 — No, $130,589 (73% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — No, $100,000 (79% win rate)
- 0xdee3...6fe5 — No, $72,677 (62% win rate)
Related Theses
Fed will hold rates steady
Covers 2 related markets
Iran closes airspace late June
Covers 7 related markets
Iran deal likely soon
Covers 10 related markets
US-Iran deal timing arbitrage
Covers 11 related markets
Trump lifts Hormuz blockade
Covers 5 related markets
Iran talks happen after April
Covers 12 related markets