Iran closes its airspace by...?
56 signals across 10 markets · $396,337 tracked
This event tracks Polymarket odds on whether Iran initiates a major, non-weather-related closure of its airspace by June 9. Traders are pricing a Yes/No outcome, with PolySpotter tracking $2,403 in smart money activity and a signal from a profitable serial event trader.
Markets (10)
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?7 signals · $199,561 tracked
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?16 signals · $113,292 tracked
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?18 signals · $56,217 tracked
- Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?4 signals · $7,526 tracked
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?3 signals · $6,929 tracked
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?3 signals · $4,267 tracked
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?2 signals · $2,687 tracked
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 9?1 signal · $2,403 tracked
- Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?1 signal · $1,843 tracked
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?1 signal · $1,614 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- 16-wallet No cluster with sharps
High-conviction No flow from 16 wallets, including linked wallets and proven profitable bettors, is moving a near-resolution geopolitical market.
$42,981Score: 29.8 - Sharp Yes buyer vs No wave
Surface because a profitable 79% wallet bought Yes at 31¢ during a major volume spike, though the market also has larger opposing No flow.
$4,776Score: 27.0 - 80% winner in No cluster
High-score alert from an 80% winning wallet, backed by linked-wallet clustering, six-wallet one-sided No flow, and a major volume spike on a geopolitically sensitive near-expiry market.
$5,135Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 19.9 - Elite bettor joins Yes cluster
Strong Yes-side cluster led by an 88% winner with $329k lifetime profit, on a geopolitically plausible market that has already moved sharply upward.
$6,811Score: 19.9 - Sharp contrarian buying No
Surface because a profitable 79% wallet made a fresh contrarian No buy during a major volume spike, though the broader No cluster is partly profit-taking from prior Yes positions.
$7,662Score: 18.1 - 68% winner plus 11-wallet flow
High-conviction No bet backed by a profitable serial cross-market trader, 11-wallet same-side flow, a 47x volume spike, and meaningful price movement on a live geopolitical market.
$1,237Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 15.5 - Sharp joins 10-wallet Yes wave
A profitable 77% winner bought Yes into a huge one-sided surge, with 10 wallets collectively pushing $43k toward the same outcome on a fast-moving geopolitical market.
$6,000Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 14.1 - 96% winner backs No
Elite 96% win-rate cross-market trader bought No into a coordinated one-sided move and major volume spike on an Iran airspace market.
$1,521Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 13.9 - Sharp cluster buying Yes
Three wallets are collectively buying Yes, including a 98% lifetime winner and a serial cross-market trader, amid a sharp 1-day move in a geopolitically sensitive market.
$4,736Score: 13.9 - Profitable serial trader flips Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader flipped from No to Yes amid a major volume spike and 10-wallet one-sided Yes flow, despite the entry now being well above current odds.
$1,915Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 13.1
Top wallets in this event
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$208,967 · 3 markets · 6 alerts · 64% wins
- 0xaf2383…aa95$14,529 · 1 market · 5 alerts · 63% wins
- 0xc96e52…f1f9$14,420 · 5 markets · 5 alerts · 76% wins
- 0x7f9e2d…3a0e$9,478 · 4 markets · 4 alerts · 91% wins
- 0x92a629…8b84$7,827 · 1 market · 1 alert · 98% wins
- 0x641b56…5433$7,617 · 1 market · 1 alert · 63% wins
- 0xecaa88…77a9$7,139 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 72% wins
- 0x49279a…22a0$6,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 77% wins
- 0x9592ad…a7b8$5,797 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 72% wins
- 0x8c66e2…44f3$5,366 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 85% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Iran closes its airspace by June 9?
The live odds are set by Polymarket traders buying and selling Yes and No shares. This event hub tracks the market price, recent movement, and smart money activity around the airspace-closure outcome.
What counts as Iran closing its airspace for this market?
The market resolves Yes if Iran initiates a major closure, cancellation, or suspension affecting commercial flights transiting, arriving in, or departing from Iranian airspace, and the closure is not solely weather-related.
What is the smart money doing on this Iran airspace market?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,403 in smart money activity across this event, including a signal tied to a profitable serial event trader. That can help show whether experienced traders are taking a position before resolution.
When does the Iran airspace closure market resolve?
The market is tied to whether a qualifying closure occurs between June 9, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET and June 9, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying closure occurs in that window, it resolves No.