Part of: Iran closes its airspace by...?

Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?

16 smart money signals detected, totaling $113,292.

Categories: Iran, Airspace, Middle East

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market sharp

A profitable 75% win-rate wallet with extensive cross-market history is adding $5.3k to No across related Iran markets.

This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $260k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 51 events and 67 markets.
They bought $5.3k of No around 81¢ while also positioning across 4 related markets.

$5,281 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

93% winner buying Yes

Despite a weak standalone price-impact signal, this is worth surfacing because the wallet has a very strong 93% resolved-bet record and is effectively buying Yes on an active geopolitical market.

This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $89.6K lifetime.
Selling No at 76¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 24¢, betting Iran airspace closure odds are too low.
The market has already moved sharply, with Yes up about 19 points in the past day.

$4,531 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

93% winner buying YES

Three wallets, including a 93% winner and a profitable serial cross-market trader, sold No, which converts to a Yes bet on Iran closing airspace.

A bettor who wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $89.6K joined this Yes-side move.
Another wallet in the cluster has 974 resolved bets and $166.7K in profit across nearly $8.0M traded.
The group put $8.1K on the same side while this geopolitics market is active and near its resolution window.

$8,117 on Yes

Profitable serial trader plus cluster

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader joined an 11-wallet one-sided push on No amid a major volume spike and price move.

This bettor has 912 resolved trades, wins 69% of them, and is up about $886k lifetime.
11 wallets bought the same side, totaling nearly $50k on No.
Volume spiked 47x above normal and No moved sharply, suggesting strong coordinated momentum.

$1,992 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Profitable geopolitical bettor

A profitable 79% win-rate wallet is buying Yes on a high-volume geopolitics market amid a major volume spike and sharp 1-day odds move.

This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up about $40K lifetime.
They are buying Yes at 31¢ after the market moved up 27 points in the past day.
Volume is running 18x above normal, suggesting broader attention around this event.

$2,207 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 286-market history bought $7.6k of No amid a major volume spike and rapid price move.

This bettor has won 63% of 286 resolved bets and is up $126,861 lifetime.
They put $7.6k on No while this market saw an 18x volume spike.
No moved about 18 points in 4 minutes, and this trader entered at 68¢ before it reached 71¢.

$7,617 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%

Profitable cross-market regular

Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No amid a sharp volume spike and rapid move toward No on a geopolitically sensitive market.

This bettor wins 63% of resolved bets and is up $101k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, with $652k placed across 38 markets in 27 events.
No moved sharply in minutes while market volume spiked 18x above normal.

$1,263 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%

68% winner plus 11-wallet flow

High-conviction No bet backed by a profitable serial cross-market trader, 11-wallet same-side flow, a 47x volume spike, and meaningful price movement on a live geopolitical market.

This bettor has won 68% of 974 resolved bets and is up $166K lifetime.
11 wallets bought No in the same window, totaling nearly $50K on one side.
Market volume spiked 47x and No has already moved up about 19 points.

$1,237 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Profitable serial trader plus cluster

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader joined an 11-wallet one-sided push on No amid a major volume spike and price move.

This bettor has 912 resolved trades, wins 69% of them, and is up about $886k lifetime.
11 wallets bought the same side, totaling nearly $50k on No.
Volume spiked 47x above normal and No moved sharply, suggesting strong coordinated momentum.

$5,147 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Profitable serial trader flips Yes

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader flipped from No to Yes amid a major volume spike and 10-wallet one-sided Yes flow, despite the entry now being well above current odds.

This bettor has won 63% of 949 resolved bets and is up $1.15M lifetime.
They closed a prior No position and bought Yes, signaling a clear flip in view.
10 wallets have bought Yes for $43K during an 89x volume spike.

$13,571 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%

Top Holders

0xe1e1...d250 — Outcome 37158553, $87,049 (91% win rate)
0x34ab...3eb5 — Outcome 37158553, $5,600 (36% win rate)
0x57cc...882c — Outcome 37158553, $5,117 (38% win rate)
0x27db...af68 — Outcome 37158553, $4,810
0x8c0c...24d7 — Outcome 37158553, $4,386 (64% win rate)
0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 37158553, $4,000 (49% win rate)
0xfbb6...11c5 — Outcome 37158553, $3,473
0xd576...d5e3 — Outcome 37158553, $3,441 (58% win rate)
0x4927...22a0 — Outcome 37158553, $2,497 (77% win rate)
0xe059...932c — Outcome 37158553, $2,050

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Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?

ResolvedIran closes its airspace by...?$113,292 tracked16 signalsIranAirspaceMiddle East

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between June 9, 2026, 3:00 PM ET and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN). Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.