Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
4 signals across 2 markets · $10,520 tracked · resolves May 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Israeli military ground forces are confirmed to have conducted operations inside Iranian territory by the listed deadlines. The hub covers both April 30 and May 31, 2026 outcomes, with smart money activity showing $10,520 tracked across 4 signals, including a profitable serial event trader and a 75% winner buying No.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?
A proven sharp wallet with an 88% win rate just made a $3.3k bet on No that accounted for 90% of this market’s 24-hour volume, a strong signal in a relatively quiet geopolitics market.
$3,333Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 5.0 - Profitable serial event trader
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 70% resolved win rate is buying No, though the bet size is modest and the outcome is already a heavy favorite.
$1,019Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 4.0 - 75% winner buying No
A proven high-volume trader with a 75% win rate is taking a sizable fresh position on No in a geopolitics market that has recently moved the other way, making this a credible contrarian signal worth surfacing.
$2,168Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 4.0 - Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?
A wallet with a 96% win rate made a $4,000 buy on No in a relatively quiet geopolitical market, suggesting a sharp bettor taking a clear view despite modest overall signal strength.
$4,000Wallet win rate: 93%Score: 3.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xddf449…2680$4,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 93% wins
- 0x436f96…2c7f$3,333 · 1 market · 1 alert · 69% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$2,168 · 1 market · 1 alert · 72% wins
- 0xb4f259…e5fa$1,019 · 1 market · 1 alert · 74% wins
FAQs
What are the Israel ground operation in Iran odds on Polymarket?
This event tracks prediction-market odds across two related markets: whether Israel launches a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026, and by May 31, 2026. PolySpotter aggregates the event so you can follow how traders price both deadlines in one place.
What counts as a ground operation for this market?
A ground operation means Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory. Aerial or maritime operations alone do not qualify under the market rules.
What is the smart money doing on this event?
PolySpotter has tracked $10,520 in smart money across 4 signals for this event. Recent alerts include activity from a profitable serial event trader and a 75% winner buying No, which may indicate skepticism about the ground-operation scenario at current odds.
When does this Polymarket event resolve?
The event includes markets resolving around the specified confirmation deadlines, including April 30 and May 31, 2026. If qualifying Israeli ground-force participation in Iran is confirmed by the relevant deadline, that market resolves Yes; otherwise it resolves No.