Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
4 signals across 3 markets · $5,846 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Anthropic makes a qualifying Fable 5.2-or-higher model available to the public by October 10, 2026. The event has one Yes/No market, and a recent alert reports a serial cross-market bettor backing No.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable trader cuts Yes after breakdown
A profitable, experienced trader sold Yes after a sharp price break, though the trade reduces an existing position rather than opening a fresh No bet.
$1,085Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 5.1 - Profitable serial trader adds to No
A profitable, highly active trader added a sizable No position, while a detected price move and current odds reinforce that direction.
$1,541Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 5.0 - Serial cross-market bettor backs No
A sizeable No position in a thin market aligns with a sharp 1-day odds move and comes from a serial cross-market trader, though the wallet's high win rate is not clearly above its typical odds.
$2,170Wallet win rate: 89%Score: 4.7 - 82% winner adding to Yes
A proven bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial historical edge is adding to an existing Yes position at 41¢.
$1,050Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 3.3
Top wallets in this event
- 0xdacf9f…3c74$2,170 · 1 market · 1 alert · 89% wins
- 0x9aeb53…2729$1,541 · 1 market · 1 alert · 67% wins
- 0x736539…64da$1,085 · 1 market · 1 alert · 63% wins
- 0xedfbf9…3c1c$1,050 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
FAQs
What are the odds of Anthropic releasing a Fable 5.2+ model by October 10, 2026?
The market's live Yes and No prices show its current implied odds. Check the market for the latest prices, which can change as traders place bets.
What is the smart money doing on the Fable release market?
PolySpotter has tracked one smart-money signal totaling $2,170 across the event: a serial cross-market bettor backed No.
What counts as a qualifying Fable model release?
The model must be made available to the general public and have a name or identifier that includes “Fable” and indicates version 5.2 or higher.
When does the Fable 5.2+ release market resolve?
The child market asks whether a qualifying model is publicly released by October 10, 2026 (ET). A release after that deadline does not qualify for Yes in this market.