PolySpotter

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Event

Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?

1 signal across 1 market · $2,500 tracked · resolves Jan 1, 2027

This Polymarket event tracks whether Anthropic’s next Sonnet model debuts with a Text Arena leaderboard score of at least 1470. The market resolves Yes if it meets that threshold at noon ET on the calendar day after the model first appears; otherwise, it resolves No.

Markets (1)

  1. Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?1 signal · $2,500 tracked

Top trades across all markets

  1. 95% winner adds to Yes position

    A highly profitable bettor with a 95% win rate across 499 resolved positions added $2,500 to Yes, making this a strong track-record signal despite already holding the outcome.

    $2,500Wallet win rate: 97%Score: 3.8

Top wallets in this event

  1. 0xd47e7b…4e60$2,500 · 1 market · 1 alert · 97% wins

FAQs

What are the odds that the next Sonnet model scores at least 1470?

Check the live market odds on this page for the current probability. The event covers the single threshold market for a score of 1470 or higher.

What is smart money doing on the next Sonnet debut?

PolySpotter has tracked one smart money signal so far: a trader identified as a 95% winner added to the Yes position.

When does the next Sonnet model market resolve?

The score is evaluated at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar day after the next qualifying Sonnet model first appears on the Arena.AI Text leaderboard. The event is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.

What counts as a Yes outcome?

The market resolves Yes if Anthropic’s next model explicitly named Sonnet has a leaderboard score of at least 1470 at the specified evaluation time. Otherwise, it resolves No.