Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
18 signals across 2 markets · $73,587 tracked · resolves Nov 28, 2024
This event tracks prediction-market odds on whether a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire goes into effect by October 31, 2026 and lasts at least 10 consecutive calendar days. Traders are pricing the likelihood of a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, with PolySpotter tracking $2,650 in smart money activity, including a signal from a profitable serial macro bettor.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- 7-wallet funded cluster
Seven wallets sharing a funder are aligned with a bearish Yes position, creating a meaningful coordinated-flow signal despite the modest trade size.
$1,277Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.7 - 81% winner buying Yes
Sharp wallet with 81% win rate and $722k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market at 23¢.
$2,213Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 8.0 - 81% winner buying Yes
Sharp wallet with 81% win rate and $722k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market at 23¢.
$1,421Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 8.0 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable, highly experienced cross-market trader bought a large No position on a thinly active Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market, and the price has already moved in their favor.
$11,800Wallet win rate: 60%Score: 5.3 - Proven serial trader buys No
A proven, highly profitable serial trader made a concentrated $19.5K No bet at 82% in a thin market, signaling meaningful conviction.
$19,534Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 4.9 - Proven bettor buys ceasefire at 10¢
A highly profitable bettor with an 81% win rate sold No at 90¢, equivalent to buying Yes at 10¢, against current 12% Yes odds.
$3,970Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 4.9 - Profitable serial trader adds to No
A historically profitable, highly active trader is adding to an existing No position amid a 107.6x pre-event volume spike, though the wallet's win rate is below its average win price.
$2,208Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 4.9 - Profitable serial macro bettor
Profitable, highly experienced cross-market bettor bought No in a quiet geopolitics market with a bet over 3x the day’s volume.
$2,650Wallet win rate: 60%Score: 4.7 - New whale scaling into No
A three-day-old wallet repeatedly added roughly $13,000 to No, including an $8,070 burst that dominated recent market activity, though it has no resolved track record.
$8,070Score: 4.4 - Profitable serial cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate is buying Yes on a geopolitical ceasefire market at 35¢.
$2,000Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x23d81b…0288$23,504 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 81% wins
- 0xd44e97…67e2$14,450 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 60% wins
- 0x5cd5c8…ac33$8,121 · 2 markets · 5 alerts · 95% wins
- 0x48120f…c8f1$8,070 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0xe23495…304a$6,905 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 66% wins
- 0xc7e53a…2d3a$3,634 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 82% wins
- 0x6d9fc3…9790$3,015 · 1 market · 1 alert · 61% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$2,208 · 1 market · 1 alert · 70% wins
- 0x8c57f6…f939$2,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 70% wins
- 0x66d75f…5b7b$1,680 · 1 market · 1 alert · 88% wins
FAQs
What are the odds of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
The live market odds reflect how Polymarket traders are pricing the chance that Russia and Ukraine enter a qualifying ceasefire by October 31, 2026. On PolySpotter, you can monitor those odds alongside smart money activity across the event.
What does this Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market require to resolve Yes?
The market resolves Yes if a mutually agreed ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM EET on October 31, 2026 and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.
Who is betting on the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire prediction market?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,650 in smart money activity on this event, including a recent signal from a profitable serial macro bettor. That type of activity can help users see when experienced geopolitical or macro traders are taking a position.
What is the smart money doing on this event?
The latest tracked signal comes from a profitable serial macro bettor, suggesting that at least one historically successful macro-focused trader has taken interest in the ceasefire outcome. PolySpotter surfaces these signals so users can compare market odds with bettor behavior.
When does the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market resolve?
The event is listed with a final resolution timeline through 2026, with the child market focused on whether a qualifying ceasefire occurs by October 31, 2026. Final resolution depends on whether the ceasefire criteria are met and verified under the market rules.