Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
2 signals across 1 market · $3,352 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This event tracks the Polymarket prediction market on whether at least one U.S. Supreme Court seat becomes vacant at any point during 2026. Traders are pricing the chance of a vacancy caused by events such as a retirement, resignation, death, or other official departure, with PolySpotter highlighting smart money activity like a profitable wallet moving in a thin order book.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable wallet moves thin book
A profitable high-volume wallet bought Yes aggressively in a very thin political market, causing a sharp upward move despite the wide spread.
$2,021Wallet win rate: 47%Score: 4.8 - Profitable sharp buying momentum
Sharp profitable wallet with a long 76% historical win rate bought Yes in a thin political market during a rapid upward price move.
$1,331Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 4.8
Top wallets in this event
- 0x853c37…bd03$2,021 · 1 market · 1 alert · 47% wins
- 0x04ec75…580f$1,331 · 1 market · 1 alert · 76% wins
FAQs
What are the odds of a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
The live Polymarket price reflects traders’ current implied probability that at least one Supreme Court seat becomes vacant during 2026. Check the market price on this event page for the latest odds.
What does this Supreme Court vacancy market resolve on?
It resolves to “Yes” if at least one U.S. Supreme Court seat becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to “No,” using official U.S. government announcements as the primary source, with credible reporting as a backup.
Is smart money betting on a 2026 Supreme Court vacancy?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,021 in smart money activity across this event, including a recent signal where a profitable wallet moved in a thin book. That can matter because smaller markets may react sharply to informed or high-conviction trades.
Why are traders watching this market?
A Supreme Court vacancy can have major political and legal consequences, especially in a presidential administration’s appointment window. Prediction-market traders watch age, health, retirement speculation, and political incentives when pricing the odds.
When does the Supreme Court vacancy 2026 market resolve?
The market is scheduled to resolve after the 2026 window closes, based on whether a vacancy occurred by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.