UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)
24 signals across 2 markets · $196,936 tracked · resolves May 17, 2026
This UFC Fight Night prediction market tracks the featherweight main-card bout between Arnold Allen and Melquizael Costa. Bettors are trading whether Allen or Costa will be officially declared the winner, with PolySpotter tracking $5,900 in smart money and a recent signal showing 92% winner backing on Allen.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Sharp contrarian on underdog
A highly profitable 81% win-rate bettor joined a 4-wallet contrarian Costa position, though the market has since moved sharply toward Arnold Allen.
$7,636Score: 20.9 - 87% sharp joins Costa cluster
Elite profitable sports wallet bought Melquizael Costa alongside one-sided cluster flow and a major pre-fight volume spike.
$4,809Wallet win rate: 88%Score: 20.3 - 97% winner joins cluster
Surface because a highly profitable 97% winner is part of a four-wallet Costa buy cluster during a major pre-fight volume spike, despite larger opposing Allen flow.
$8,091Score: 16.9 - 98% sharp joins Allen flow
A highly profitable 98% win-rate bettor bought Arnold Allen amid heavy one-sided flow and a major pre-fight volume spike.
$1,980Wallet win rate: 98%Score: 16.4 - Sharp UFC bettor joins cluster
Sharp UFC bettor with an 81% resolved win rate and nearly $899k profit joined coordinated Costa buying amid a major pre-fight volume spike.
$2,380Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 15.2 - Profitable serial sports bettor
High-scoring UFC alert with a very profitable serial sports bettor buying Costa alongside six-wallet one-sided flow and a major pre-fight volume spike.
$3,059Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 12.9 - Brand-new repeat UFC whale
Brand-new wallet is making repeat large UFC bets into a major pre-fight volume surge, suggesting fresh conviction on Arnold Allen at 54¢.
$3,384Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 12.9 - Linked cluster moved Allen
Strong coordinated Arnold Allen buying with linked-wallet flow, major price impact, and a profitable high-volume sports trader who entered far below the current market.
$1,000Wallet win rate: 56%Score: 12.8 - Six-wallet underdog push
Coordinated one-sided buying and a major pre-fight volume spike make this worth surfacing, even though the individual wallet is not a proven profitable sharp.
$1,069Wallet win rate: 60%Score: 11.6 - Profitable serial bettor joins Costa flow
Profitable serial sports bettor joined a 6-wallet one-sided move on Melquizael Costa amid a major pre-fight volume spike.
$2,107Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 11.6
Top wallets in this event
- 0x4bff30…fc26$96,910 · 1 market · 1 alert · 90% wins
- 0x8f8c0e…e275$24,156 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 79% wins
- 0xd6966e…8a49$6,160 · 1 market · 1 alert · 89% wins
- 0x225647…0386$5,900 · 1 market · 1 alert · 92% wins
- 0x2b15b1…9b08$5,148 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 79% wins
- 0x27f738…44b0$4,809 · 1 market · 1 alert · 88% wins
- 0xdd9d90…b730$4,700 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 96% wins
- 0xd27cc7…c081$3,929 · 1 market · 1 alert · 80% wins
- 0x1117ea…3532$3,922 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 66% wins
- 0x7286f5…d5d0$3,384 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
FAQs
What are the Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa odds on Polymarket?
The market price reflects the crowd-implied probability for each fighter to win. On PolySpotter, you can follow live Polymarket odds for Allen vs Costa alongside smart money activity and recent betting signals.
What is the smart money doing on Allen vs Costa?
PolySpotter has tracked $5,900 in smart money across this event, with one recent signal showing 92% winner backing Arnold Allen. That suggests tracked profitable wallets are currently leaning heavily toward Allen.
Can Melquizael Costa still attract smart money support?
Yes. Prediction-market odds can move quickly as new information, weigh-ins, injuries, or sharp buying comes in. If smart wallets start buying Costa, PolySpotter will surface those signals on the event page.
When does the Allen vs Costa market resolve?
The market is expected to resolve after the official fight result, with the event resolving by May 17, 2026. It resolves to the officially declared winner, while a draw, no contest, cancellation, or major postponement can trigger a 50-50 resolution.