UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)
6 signals across 2 markets · $173,437 tracked · resolves Oct 25, 2026
This UFC 333 Polymarket event tracks the winner of the lightweight prelim between Grant Dawson and Nurullo Aliev, with outcomes for either fighter and a 50-50 resolution for certain draws, no contests, or cancellations. A recent PolySpotter alert says a “95% winner” is adding to Aliev; that describes the trader signal, not the market’s odds.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable sharp amid coordinated flow
A highly profitable bettor and a 10-wallet cluster backed Nurullo, though the outcome has since fallen sharply from the bettor’s 50¢ entry to 6¢.
$1,900Wallet win rate: 88%Score: 9.3 - Large Dawson buyer amid sharp repricing
A $154K burst of Dawson buying coincided with a 400x volume spike and a sharp repricing, though most of the money came from a historically unprofitable whale.
$154,077Score: 9.2 - Sharp bettor in 10-wallet Aliev cluster
A historically profitable bettor and a 10-wallet buying cluster point to Nurullo Aliev, though the market now prices him at 6% versus this trade's 77% entry, making the signal stale and highly conflicted.
$2,100Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 9.2 - Four-wallet Aliev buying cluster
Four wallets added roughly $10.3K to Nurullo Aliev, alongside a 29x volume spike and a serial cross-market trader with a 71% win rate.
$12,810Score: 7.6 - 95% winner adding to Aliev
A highly profitable bettor with a 95% win rate across 215 resolved positions added to an existing Nurullo Aliev position at even odds.
$1,000Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 5.4 - New wallet scaling into KO/TKO Yes
A very new wallet is adding to a sizable Yes position in a thin market, though its one resolved bet is too little to establish a track record.
$1,551Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 3.1
Top wallets in this event
- 0x08c263…c023$2,100 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
- 0x9a92f7…3c67$1,900 · 1 market · 1 alert · 88% wins
- 0x5ccc35…7c77$1,551 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0xe53b7c…a526$1,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 92% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for Dawson vs. Aliev?
The event page tracks the market’s current prices for Grant Dawson and Nurullo Aliev. Check the live market for the latest odds, which can change as traders place bets.
What is the smart money doing on Dawson vs. Aliev?
PolySpotter’s recent alert says a “95% winner” is adding to Nurullo Aliev. The alert reports trader activity; it does not mean Aliev has a 95% chance of winning.
What outcomes are traded in this event?
The market resolves to Grant Dawson or Nurullo Aliev if either is officially declared the winner. A draw, technical draw, no contest, unscored fight, cancellation, or postponement beyond November 7, 2026, results in a 50-50 resolution.
When does the Dawson vs. Aliev market resolve?
The fight is scheduled for October 24, 2026, at UFC 333. The market is scheduled to resolve by October 25, 2026, with the stated 50-50 rule applying if it is postponed beyond November 7, 2026.