UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
35 signals across 5 markets · $781,516 tracked · resolves Jul 12, 2026
This UFC 329 prediction market tracks the welterweight main card fight between Max Holloway and Conor McGregor, with outcomes tied to the official fight result. PolySpotter is tracking $2,080 in smart money activity so far, including a recent signal showing 97% winner backing on Holloway.
Markets (5)
- UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)21 signals · $718,803 tracked
- Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?4 signals · $33,445 tracked
- O/U 2.5 Rounds7 signals · $24,668 tracked
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?2 signals · $3,476 tracked
- Will Conor McGregor win by KO or TKO?1 signal · $1,124 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- 9-wallet funded McGregor cluster
A linked-wallet cluster is adding meaningful one-sided exposure to McGregor at underdog odds, despite mixed individual wallet track records and one trade being Holloway profit-taking.
$55,083Score: 10.6 - Serial cross-market whale
A very active cross-market whale put $101k on Max Holloway at 65¢, creating a major pre-event volume spike despite a negative lifetime P&L profile.
$101,569Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 8.0 - Serial cross-market whale
A very active cross-market whale put $101k on Max Holloway at 65¢, creating a major pre-event volume spike despite a negative lifetime P&L profile.
$132,955Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 8.0 - Sharp cluster buying Yes
Five wallets, including a highly profitable large bettor, added $71k of one-sided Yes exposure during a 132x volume spike near fight resolution.
$10,836Score: 7.7 - 92% winner in NO cluster
A proven 92% winner is adding to a No position alongside one-sided flow and a 33x pre-event volume spike, making this a credible directional UFC prop signal.
$12,264Score: 7.0 - $132K Holloway whale cluster
A $132K one-sided buy cluster on Holloway, led by a profitable high-volume sports trader, coincides with a 91x pre-event volume spike two days before the fight.
$54,536Score: 6.4 - 76% winner buying big
A highly profitable 76% win-rate wallet with extensive cross-market history placed a $50.9k buy on Max Holloway at 67¢.
$50,920Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 6.0 - 85% winner adding
Sharp sports wallet with an 85% resolved win rate is adding to an existing Max Holloway position amid a major pre-fight volume spike.
$4,047Wallet win rate: 87%Score: 5.9 - Late Under cluster hit
Three wallets bought Under around 45–48¢ shortly before it moved to 100¢, backed by a 33.7x volume spike and one-sided flow, though wallet track records are mixed.
$4,859Score: 5.9 - 88% winner buying Under
Surfacing because a highly proven profitable bettor with a massive sample and strong cross-market history is buying Under at 48¢ near fight day.
$6,000Wallet win rate: 88%Score: 5.6
Top wallets in this event
- 0x224a89…a3d5$234,524 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 63% wins
- 0xe54958…2d54$160,759 · 1 market · 1 alert · 99% wins
- 0x6e82b9…752c$50,920 · 1 market · 1 alert · 77% wins
- 0x5b4ec9…0232$43,210 · 1 market · 1 alert · 95% wins
- 0x86d2d4…731d$38,189 · 1 market · 1 alert · 94% wins
- 0x85bbb0…9ada$30,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 87% wins
- 0xdaef2b…54e9$11,520 · 1 market · 1 alert · 65% wins
- 0x6d20c3…a165$10,566 · 1 market · 1 alert · 44% wins
- 0x27f738…44b0$7,098 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 88% wins
- 0xa476fa…8cfc$6,619 · 1 market · 1 alert · 87% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for Holloway vs McGregor at UFC 329?
The market price reflects traders' implied probability for Max Holloway or Conor McGregor to win the fight. PolySpotter tracks those odds alongside smart money signals so you can see not just the price, but who is backing each side.
What is smart money doing on Holloway vs McGregor?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,080 in smart money across this event, with a recent alert showing 97% winner backing on Max Holloway. That suggests the tracked profitable wallets are currently leaning heavily toward Holloway.
When does the Holloway vs McGregor prediction market resolve?
The market is scheduled to resolve after the official result of UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2, with a listed resolution time of July 12, 2026 UTC.
What happens if Holloway vs McGregor is canceled or ends in a draw?
If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a no contest, canceled, not scored, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, the market resolves 50-50 according to the listed rules.