US recession by end of 2026?
8 signals across 1 market · $26,775 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket odds on whether the United States will enter a recession by the end of 2026. Traders are pricing the chance that either real GDP contracts for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026, or the NBER announces a US recession for 2025 or 2026. PolySpotter is currently tracking $2,119 in smart money activity across this event.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- 95% win-rate macro sharp
A highly proven serial cross-market bettor with a 95% resolved win rate and +$242,932 lifetime P&L bought $6.4k of No on a quiet recession market.
$6,420Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 5.0 - Proven wallet buys long-shot Yes
A profitable high-volume wallet with a 77% record is effectively buying Yes at 14¢ amid a sharp volume spike on a normally quiet recession market.
$6,553Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 4.3 - 94% winner adding to No
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 94% win rate is adding to an existing large No position despite the market already pricing recession at only 10%.
$1,166Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 4.0 - Proven bettor buying NO
Surfaced because a proven profitable wallet with 77% wins over 1,042 resolved bets is re-entering No amid an unusual volume spike.
$3,490Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 3.5 - Sharp bettor pivots toward recession
A highly profitable bettor with a 90% win rate made a sizable contrarian move away from No in a thin, wide-spread recession market.
$3,363Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 3.1 - Profitable high-volume bettor
Despite a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the wallet has a long profitable track record and is taking a fresh No position in a macro market.
$2,482Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 1.0 - US recession by end of 2026?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
$2,119Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 1.0 - Profitable sharp buys NO
Despite a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the bettor has a long profitable track record with 77% wins across 1,038 resolved markets.
$1,181Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 1.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x7c156b…c9db$11,154 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 77% wins
- 0x7cde9c…b97d$7,586 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 94% wins
- 0xeb6f0a…25f0$4,671 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 73% wins
- 0xe5b70f…5ee3$3,363 · 1 market · 1 alert · 90% wins
FAQs
What are the current Polymarket odds for a US recession by the end of 2026?
The market price reflects traders’ implied probability that the US will meet the recession criteria by the end of 2026. On PolySpotter, you can track the live odds alongside smart money signals and changes in positioning.
How does this US recession prediction market resolve?
It resolves to “Yes” if US real GDP shows two consecutive quarters of negative annualized growth between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026, according to BEA data, or if the NBER announces that a US recession occurred during 2025 or 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to “No.”
What is smart money doing in this recession market?
PolySpotter tracks wallet activity from traders with notable prediction-market history. For this event, $2,119 in smart money has been tracked across one signal, helping users see whether informed traders are leaning toward recession or no recession.
When will the US recession by end of 2026 market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve by January 31, 2027, allowing time for official GDP data and any relevant NBER recession announcements covering 2025 or 2026.