What is the Polymarket question for a U.S. recession by end of 2026?

The market asks whether the United States will enter a recession by the end of 2026. It resolves Yes if there are two consecutive quarters of negative seasonally adjusted annualized real GDP growth between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026, or if the NBER announces that a recession occurred in 2025 or 2026.

When does the U.S. recession by 2026 market resolve?

The scheduled resolution date is January 31, 2027. This gives time for official BEA GDP data and any relevant NBER recession announcement to be considered.

What counts as a Yes outcome in this recession prediction market?

Yes requires either two consecutive quarters of negative U.S. real GDP growth, as reported by the BEA, during the specified period, or a public NBER announcement that a U.S. recession occurred at any point during 2025 or 2026.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking on this market?

PolySpotter is tracking $2,482 in smart money exposure across 1 signal. Recent alerts include a 95% win-rate macro sharp, a profitable high-volume bettor, and a profitable sharp buying NO.

How should I interpret the odds on a U.S. recession prediction market?

Prediction market odds can be read as the market’s implied probability of the outcome, though they also reflect liquidity, risk appetite, and trader positioning. Smart money signals may help identify whether experienced or historically profitable traders are leaning Yes or No.

Part of: US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

This prediction market tracks whether the U.S. will be considered in recession by the end of 2026, based on either two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth from Q2 2025 through Q4 2026 or an NBER recession announcement covering 2025 or 2026. The market resolves on January 31, 2027, using BEA GDP data and NBER announcements. PolySpotter currently tracks $2,482 in smart money activity, including a profitable sharp buying NO.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,202.

Categories: Economic Policy, Business, Economy, Macro Graph

Notable Trades

Profitable high-volume bettor

Despite a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the wallet has a long profitable track record and is taking a fresh No position in a macro market.

This bettor has won 77% of 482 resolved bets and is up about $130k lifetime.
They bought $2.5k of No at 82¢ on a quiet trading day, signaling a clear view against a recession resolution.
Entry at 82¢ implies a lower-risk, high-conviction favorite rather than a long-shot swing.

$2,482 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Profitable sharp buys NO

Despite a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the bettor has a long profitable track record with 77% wins across 1,038 resolved markets.

This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $122k lifetime.
They bought No at 80¢, backing the view that a US recession by end-2026 is still unlikely.
The trade is small for this liquid market, but the wallet’s long track record is the main signal.

$1,181 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

95% win-rate macro sharp

A highly proven serial cross-market bettor with a 95% resolved win rate and +$242,932 lifetime P&L bought $6.4k of No on a quiet recession market.

This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up $242,932 lifetime.
They have traded 322 markets across 268 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
The $6.4k No buy was about two-thirds of the market’s 24h volume, showing real conviction.

$6,420 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%