Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Iga Swiatek
13 signals across 3 markets · $25,059 tracked · resolves May 18, 2026
This PolySpotter event tracks prediction-market odds for Naomi Osaka vs Iga Swiatek at the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, focused on the set handicap market: Swiatek -1.5 vs Osaka +1.5. Smart money activity has been notable, with $4,088 tracked across 3 signals, including alerts from a 92% winner backing the favorite, a profitable serial sports trader, and a proven tennis bettor.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- Coordinated Osaka upset buyers
Three wallets, including a profitable serial cross-market trader and a brand-new repeat whale, bought the Osaka upset during a 21x pre-event volume spike, though the market has since moved against their 26–28¢ entries.
$4,064Score: 10.9 - 92% winner backs favorite
Elite 92% lifetime winner with strong cross-market history bought Swiatek -1.5 at 51¢ in a relatively small tennis market.
$1,459Wallet win rate: 78%Score: 9.0 - 80% winner cross-market sharp
Sharp tennis bettor with an 80% long-run win rate and strong positive P&L is buying Osaka +1.5 sets at roughly even odds.
$1,200Wallet win rate: 61%Score: 6.0 - New repeat bettor backing underdog
A 4-hour-old repeat-flagged wallet is building multiple early positions and bought $1.27k of Osaka at 28%, but the track record is still too small and unprofitable to treat as a sharp-wallet signal.
$1,272Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 5.5 - Fresh wallet betting big
A 4-hour-old wallet has already made six large flagged bets totaling $10.8k and is adding nearly $2k on Iga Swiatek at 75¢, showing aggressive early conviction despite no proven track record yet.
$1,977Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 5.5 - Proven serial tennis bettor
A proven serial cross-market bettor with a 78% win rate and +$74.9k P&L bought Iga Swiatek, alongside a sharp pre-event volume spike.
$1,246Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 5.3 - Profitable serial sports bettor
A profitable serial cross-market sports bettor with a 400-bet history is buying the heavy favorite amid a large pre-match volume spike.
$1,394Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 4.4 - Profitable serial sports trader
A highly active cross-market trader with 1,116 resolved bets and $317k lifetime profit bought Swiatek -1.5 at even odds on a moderately quiet tennis market.
$1,124Wallet win rate: 62%Score: 4.0 - 87% winner backs favorite
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 87% historical win rate bought $5,000 of Iga Swiatek, alongside a notable pre-event volume spike and immediate move from 88% to 92%.
$5,000Wallet win rate: 89%Score: 4.0 - Sharp tennis bettor buying favorite
Sharp bettor with a 79% resolved-bet record and positive lifetime P&L bought Iga Swiatek at 83¢ amid a large pre-event volume spike.
$1,529Wallet win rate: 84%Score: 3.4
Top wallets in this event
- 0x647e83…dd9b$5,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 89% wins
- 0xc35049…3669$2,460 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 62% wins
- 0xceb035…3036$1,977 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0x39d3c7…9ef0$1,954 · 1 market · 1 alert · 43% wins
- 0xee782c…cbb9$1,529 · 1 market · 1 alert · 84% wins
- 0xb57a6e…b8c3$1,505 · 1 market · 1 alert · 76% wins
- 0xb2fe04…7558$1,459 · 1 market · 1 alert · 78% wins
- 0xcd8c74…f75a$1,394 · 1 market · 1 alert · 70% wins
- 0xcf07b9…c35c$1,272 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0xd27cc7…c081$1,246 · 1 market · 1 alert · 80% wins
FAQs
What are the Osaka vs Swiatek prediction market odds?
This event tracks the Polymarket-style odds for the Osaka vs Swiatek match through the set handicap market, where traders are pricing Swiatek to win by 2+ sets versus Osaka keeping it within the +1.5 set spread.
What outcome is being traded for Osaka vs Swiatek?
The child market for this event is Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5), meaning bettors are trading whether Iga Swiatek wins comfortably or Naomi Osaka covers the set handicap.
What is the smart money doing on Osaka vs Swiatek?
PolySpotter has tracked $4,088 in smart money across 3 signals, including activity from a 92% winner backing the favorite, a profitable serial sports trader, and a proven tennis bettor.
When does the Osaka vs Swiatek market resolve?
The event is scheduled around the May 11, 2026 match and is expected to resolve once a winner and set result are determined. If the match is canceled or delayed beyond the market rules, resolution follows the listed Polymarket terms.
Where can I track Osaka vs Swiatek on Polymarket?
You can use PolySpotter to monitor the Osaka vs Swiatek prediction market, including live odds movement, handicap pricing, and smart money alerts tied to this event.