Part of: Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?
This prediction market tracks whether Extended’s token will have a fully diluted valuation above $800 million one day after launch. FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price, with the key measurement taken at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after the token becomes publicly transferable and tradable. PolySpotter is tracking $1,068 in smart money activity and 1 signal for this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,118.
Categories: Crypto, Pre-Market, Extended, FDV
Notable Trades
95% crypto launch bettor
Sharp 95% win-rate wallet is effectively buying Yes on a quiet crypto launch valuation market while positioning across related markets.
- This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up $9.4K lifetime.
- They are effectively buying Yes at 11¢, a low-priced bet on Extended launching above an $800M FDV.
- The wallet has also positioned across another related market, suggesting a broader view on this launch.
$1,068 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%
95% winner buying longshot
Sharp profitable wallet with a 95% resolved-bet record is effectively buying Yes at 10¢ with a $4,050 bet that is large versus recent volume.
- This bettor has won 75 of 79 resolved bets and is up $9.3k lifetime.
- The $4,050 trade equals about 74% of the market’s 24h volume, showing real conviction in a quiet market.
- Selling No at 90¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 10¢, a longshot position with high upside.
$4,050 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%
Top Holders
- 0xab82...abe5 — Yes, $46,898 (55% win rate)
- 0xba0d...9a6e — No, $25,000 (51% win rate)
- 0x51a4...02d6 — Yes, $19,189
- 0x6138...97a0 — No, $12,009 (51% win rate)
- 0x5633...eb7c — No, $10,916
- 0x2d85...c543 — No, $8,525
- 0xe7ef...b402 — No, $5,571 (100% win rate)
- 0x7e6e...98d2 — No, $4,387 (98% win rate)
- 0xe23e...0b69 — No, $3,500
- 0xee67...ef38 — Yes, $3,229 (72% win rate)
Related Theses
FDV avoids $300M-$800M range
Covers 2 related markets
