Part of: Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud

Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud

This market refers to the tennis match between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 28, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Stefanos Tsitsipas' if Stefanos Tsitsipas advances against Casper Ruud. This market will resolve to 'Casper Ruud' if Casper Ruud advances against Stefanos Tsitsipas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

20 smart money signals detected, totaling $206,571.

Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games

Notable Trades

8-wallet Ruud cluster

A linked cluster of 8 wallets piled into Casper Ruud before a huge move from 42¢ to 92¢, led by a very active cross-market bettor with a solid long-term edge.

8 wallets all bought Casper Ruud, and 4 of them trace back to the same funder.
This wallet has nearly 6,000 resolved bets and is up $108k lifetime.
The buy came at 42¢ before Ruud moved to 92¢, a massive 50-point jump.

$3,592 on Casper Ruud | Wallet win rate: 56%

96% winner flipped to Ruud

A proven sharp bettor with a 96% win rate flipped into Casper Ruud at 69¢ while 6 wallets piled in the same direction, creating a notable coordinated sports trade despite the market later moving against them.

This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up $142k across 2,005 settled positions.
Six wallets bought Casper Ruud for a combined $37.5k, pointing to a shared thesis rather than a lone bet.
This wallet had already closed a Tsitsipas position, so this Ruud buy looks like a fresh directional flip at 69¢.

$2,293 on Casper Ruud | Wallet win rate: 97%

95% win-rate sharp on Ruud

A proven sharp bettor with a 95% win rate joined a 6-wallet, $37k one-sided move into Casper Ruud during a volume spike, making this a strong trade to study despite the market later moving sharply against the entry.

This bettor wins 95% of their resolved trades and is up $56.7k across 74 bets.
Six wallets bought Casper Ruud in the same window for $37.5k total as market activity jumped 43x above normal.
The entry was 67¢, which is now far above the 40¢ market price, so only a lower-price follow makes sense.

$1,400 on Casper Ruud | Wallet win rate: 47%

93% win-rate bettor buys Ruud

A proven sharp sports bettor with a 93% win rate joined a 6-wallet one-sided move into Casper Ruud during a major volume spike, making this a strong follow signal despite the market moving against their entry afterward.

This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $586k across 193 bets.
Six wallets all bought Casper Ruud for about $37.5k total as market volume jumped 43x normal.
The fill was 67¢, implying they saw Ruud as clearly mispriced before a fast 21.5-point move.

$4,020 on Casper Ruud | Wallet win rate: 93%

76% win-rate thesis flip

A proven 76% win-rate cross-market trader flipped this tennis market with a fresh $5,000 buy on Tsitsipas after previously closing a profitable Ruud position, making this a notable thesis change despite the market moving sharply against the entry.

This bettor has won 76% of 319 resolved trades across 272 events, so their moves are worth tracking.
They put $5,000 into Tsitsipas at 89¢ after closing an earlier Ruud position, showing a clear change in view rather than routine profit-taking.
Market activity spiked 30.7x and Tsitsipas has since fallen from 89¢ to 40¢, so this is high-conviction but the original entry is gone.

$5,000 on Stefanos Tsitsipas | Wallet win rate: 79%

79% winner flips to Tsitsipas

A proven 79% win-rate sports trader exited Casper Ruud as multiple wallets piled into Tsitsipas, matching a strong one-sided move and sharp price swing.

This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and has made about $29.6k profit across 107 settled markets.
Six wallets put $43k behind Tsitsipas together, and the price swung hard against Ruud during the move.
This trade was a sell of Ruud at 46¢, which translates to buying Tsitsipas around 54¢ in this binary market.

$1,535 on Stefanos Tsitsipas | Wallet win rate: 79%

80% winner in 6-wallet surge

A high-volume coordinated move backed by a serial 80% win-rate trader is worth watching, even though this wallet bought after a sharp run-up and is now underwater.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades across 384 bets and has traded nearly $7.6M across 181 events
Six wallets piled into Stefanos Tsitsipas on the same side for $43k total as the price jumped 39 points
The trader paid 77¢, showing strong conviction even after a sharp move, though the market is now back at 56¢

$4,830 on Stefanos Tsitsipas | Wallet win rate: 80%

6-wallet Tsitsipas surge

A proven high-volume sports trader joined a 6-wallet, $43k one-sided move that drove Tsitsipas up sharply, making this coordinated flow worth watching despite the wallet’s modest standalone edge.

6 wallets put $43k on the same side and pushed Tsitsipas up 39 points
This wallet has 1,325 resolved bets and is up about $44.9k overall
Market volume ran 27.5x above normal, showing unusual attention on this match

$1,460 on Stefanos Tsitsipas | Wallet win rate: 62%

Linked Ruud betting cluster

A profitable high-volume sports trader joined a 4-wallet linked cluster buying Casper Ruud into a sharp pre-match move, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than a routine bet.

Four wallets bought Casper Ruud together for $27.1k, and two share a funder.
This wallet has 215 resolved bets and is up $369k lifetime.
They entered at 34¢ before the market moved to 30¢, signaling strong conviction despite immediate heat.

$5,000 on Casper Ruud | Wallet win rate: 77%

Profitable event specialist

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought $15k of Casper Ruud into a sharp pre-match move, taking a contrarian entry before the price fell further.

This bettor has won 129 of 215 resolved markets and is up $369k lifetime
They bought $15k of Casper Ruud at 34¢, and the market moved lower to 30¢ right after
This match saw a 31.5x volume spike, suggesting fast new information or strong conviction before the result

$15,000 on Casper Ruud | Wallet win rate: 77%