Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?
This prediction market asks whether the active month of WTI crude oil futures will print a 1-minute candle low of $80 or below at any point during April 2026. It resolves to Yes if that price is touched even ერთხელ during the month; otherwise it resolves to No at the end of April. Traders watching WTI prediction market odds are using this market to gauge downside risk in oil prices ahead of the April 30, 2026 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For WTI futures, the active month refers to the nearest listed contract month. The active month changes at 6:00:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days prior to that contract's last trading day, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month. For WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, the last trading day is defined as three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day), consistent with CME contract specifications. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $25,743.
Categories: Finance, Monthly, Hit Price, Finance Updown, Commodities, Oil, Rewards 50, 4.5, 100
Notable Trades
97% win-rate oil bettor
A bettor with a 97% win rate is taking the No side in a fast-moving oil market, making this worth watching despite the modest single-trade size.
- This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades and is up $66.8k lifetime
- They are betting No at 42¢ after this market jumped 33 points in a day
- The price implies roughly a 2.4x payoff if oil does not hit this April low
$1,095 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%
5-wallet oil downside cluster
Five wallets piled into the same WTI downside trigger market as price surged, and several legs were entered by selling No at 20-39¢, equivalent to buying Yes well below the current 57-58¢ market.
- Five wallets all bet the same way on this oil trigger market for $11.6k total
- Three of the buys were effectively entered at 61-80¢ on Yes by selling No before the market moved to 57-58¢
- The group is also active across 7-9 related oil markets, suggesting a broader event thesis rather than a one-off punt
$11,589 on Yes
78% win-rate oil bettor
A high-volume, historically profitable wallet with a 78% win rate is making a fresh cross-market commodity bet, which is worth watching even though the signal set is narrow.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up about $617k across more than 1,000 bets
- They bought No at 76¢ on this oil threshold market, implying a fairly strong view that WTI stays above $80 this month
- The market is active and liquid, so a $6.0k buy from a proven winner looks more like deliberate positioning than a random punt
$6,022 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
79% win-rate oil bettor
A highly profitable wallet with a 79% win rate is making a sizable directional crude-oil threshold bet as part of a broader three-market event thesis.
- This bettor wins 79% of their trades and is up about $262k across more than 1,000 resolved bets.
- They put $5.5k into No at 72¢ as part of a 3-market view on the same crude oil event.
- The market is active and liquid, so this looks more like a sharp directional opinion than a random punt.
$5,476 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
3-wallet oil cluster
Three linked wallets funded by the same address are collectively buying the same oil threshold market across related contracts, suggesting coordinated conviction despite this specific wallet having only average standalone stats.
- Three linked wallets funded by the same address put $5.5k into related WTI markets in the same direction
- This buy came at 18¢ in a liquid market, a cheap entry if their oil downside thesis is right
- The edge is the coordinated cluster, not this wallet alone — its own record is roughly break-even over 999 bets
$1,561 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 50%
Top Holders
- 0x1a29...9b2e — Yes, $122,499 (71% win rate)
- 0xe734...4f0c — Yes, $114,195 (38% win rate)
- 0x32b4...8b21 — Yes, $80,111 (62% win rate)
- 0x4bbe...2cf3 — No, $72,858 (78% win rate)
- 0x6718...a38e — No, $38,825 (97% win rate)
- 0x26a6...333b — Yes, $25,098
- 0x993c...6787 — No, $20,000
- 0x3d18...1160 — No, $14,000 (100% win rate)
- 0x777f...a1bb — No, $12,902 (79% win rate)
- 0xd4aa...d40c — Yes, $11,095
