This bettor has won 81% of 2,295 resolved bets and is up about $849k lifetime. They are a seasoned cross-market trader, active across 487 events with over $2.4M tracked in similar activity. They bought Yes at 45¢, while the market is now around 38¢ with a wide 12¢ spread.

Part of: MLB Home Run Derby 2026: Winner

Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,729.

Categories: baseball, home run, Home Run Derby, MLB, Sports, MLB ASG

Notable Trades

81% winner backs YES

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 81% resolved win rate is buying Yes on Schwarber despite the market now trading below their entry.

This bettor has won 81% of 2,295 resolved bets and is up about $849k lifetime.
They are a seasoned cross-market trader, active across 487 events with over $2.4M tracked in similar activity.
They bought Yes at 45¢, while the market is now around 38¢ with a wide 12¢ spread.

$1,244 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

Sharp serial bettor adding

Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 89% resolved record is adding a meaningful Yes position on a thin MLB Derby market.

This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up about $116K lifetime.
They are a frequent cross-market trader across 32 events with a strong track record.
They have built an $8.7K Yes position around 45¢ on a market with only $577 liquidity.

$3,600 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Sharp serial bettor fading Yes

Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 86% resolved win rate is adding a $5.9k No position against Schwarber winning the derby.

This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $22k lifetime.
They have traded across 29 events with the same strong record, suggesting a repeatable edge.
They bought No at 79¢, and the market is now around 76¢, slightly cheaper than their entry.

$5,885 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 38601774, $24,842
0x060f...5a9d — Outcome 33145602, $8,653 (92% win rate)
0x27d2...b0f8 — Outcome 33145602, $4,454 (67% win rate)
0xaabc...a190 — Outcome 33145602, $1,905 (77% win rate)
0x1a2f...647a — Outcome 33145602, $1,356 (67% win rate)
0x73c0...3733 — Outcome 33145602, $1,142 (53% win rate)
0x1b21...a183 — Outcome 33145602, $1,000
0xeff8...68eb — Outcome 33145602, $972 (85% win rate)
0x0a75...dd88 — Outcome 33145602, $705
0x7851...d471 — Outcome 33145602, $700 (98% win rate)

Related Theses

Thunder or Spurs win Finals

Covers 3 related markets

Cavaliers won't win East

Covers 3 related markets

Knicks win Finals 4-1

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?

ResolvedMLB Home Run Derby 2026: Winner$10,729 tracked3 signalsbaseballhome runHome Run DerbyMLBSportsMLB ASG

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby, scheduled for July 13, 2026, 5 PM ET. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby per the rules set by the competition (e.g., disqualification, player withdraws), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby is cancelled, postponed past July 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the MLB.