What does this US crude oil reserves prediction market measure?

It measures whether the U.S. Energy Information Administration reports Strategic Petroleum Reserve ending crude oil stocks of 285 million barrels or less for any eligible week.

When does the SPR 285M market resolve?

The market resolves as soon as the 285 million barrel threshold is reached. If it is not reached, it resolves after data for the final week ending on or before August 28, 2026, with a scheduled resolution date of September 8, 2026.

What counts as a Yes outcome?

The outcome is Yes if an EIA weekly figure for U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve ending crude oil stocks is less than or equal to 285 million barrels.

What happens if SPR stocks never fall to 285M barrels?

The market resolves No if no eligible EIA report shows SPR crude oil stocks at or below 285 million barrels.

Where can I track the Polymarket odds for this oil reserve market?

PolySpotter tracks prediction-market odds and smart-money activity for the question of whether U.S. SPR crude oil reserves will reach 285 million barrels by the deadline.

Part of: Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?

This prediction market asks whether U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) crude oil stocks will fall to 285 million barrels or less in any EIA weekly report for a week ending on or before August 28, 2026. It resolves Yes if that threshold is reached; otherwise, it resolves No after the final eligible report, with final resolution scheduled for September 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before August 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before August 28, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on or before August 28, 2026, by September 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,036.

Categories: Oil, SPR, Iran, Trump, crude, Economy, petroleum

Notable Trades

Serial cross-market bettor adds to Yes

A serial cross-market bettor with 242 resolved positions is adding $2,036 to an existing Yes position in a relatively thin market, though their historical win rate does not clearly beat their typical entry prices.

This bettor has won 82% of 242 resolved trades and is up $32,054 lifetime.
The $2,036 purchase represents 56% of the market's 24-hour volume and adds to an existing Yes position.
The trade entered at 70¢ while Yes is now around 72¢, signaling continued conviction in the outcome.

$2,036 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%