Part of: How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
This prediction market asks whether the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield will reach 5.0% or higher on any date from November 11, 2025 through December 31, 2026. It resolves using the Treasury Department’s Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates for the “10 Yr” column. PolySpotter is tracking $1,273 in smart money activity, including a recent YES buy from an 88% winner.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,377.
Categories: Jerome Powell, Finance, Fed Rates, Treasuries, Economy
Notable Trades
88% winner buying YES
Despite a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the wallet has an exceptional 88% resolved win rate and $4.0M lifetime profit, and the trade converts to a Yes position on a macro market with strong recent momentum.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $4.0M lifetime.
- They are effectively buying Yes at 31¢ on a market that has moved up 22 points this week.
- The market is fairly quiet with a wide spread, so even a $1.3K trade can reflect focused conviction.
$1,273 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Sharp bettor buying longshot
Despite a low composite score, this is worth surfacing because a bettor with an 89% win rate and $1.58M profit opened a fresh position in a thin market by effectively buying Yes at 16¢.
- This bettor wins 89% of their resolved trades and is up $1.58M lifetime
- They effectively bought Yes at 16¢ by selling No, a cheap entry if 5% yields are more likely than the market thinks
- Their $1.1k order was 72% of the market's 24-hour volume in a market with only $2.7k of liquidity
$1,104 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Top Holders
- 0x27e5...fb20 — No, $20,873 (73% win rate)
- 0x1d37...f4a4 — Yes, $19,900
- 0x7e01...63be — No, $3,000 (62% win rate)
- 0x2478...2e62 — Yes, $2,563 (61% win rate)
- 0x35e1...f41d — No, $2,522
- 0x70a9...6a74 — Yes, $2,507
- 0x9f08...73a8 — Yes, $1,413 (81% win rate)
- 0x9ff2...0707 — Yes, $1,215
- 0xfbfd...0029 — No, $996 (88% win rate)
- 0x8998...32be — No, $700 (63% win rate)
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