Part of: US Open ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

Alex Michelsen vs. Daniel Merida Aguilar: Total Sets O/U 3.5

This Polymarket tennis market covers the total sets played in the Alex Michelsen vs. Daniel Merida Aguilar US Open ATP match, scheduled for September 4, 2026. “Over” wins if at least four sets are played, while “Under” wins if the match has three or fewer sets; PolySpotter tracks $3,900 in smart money and one signal, including a sharp bettor scaling into Over.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,900.

Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor scaling into Over

A highly profitable, serial cross-market bettor with an 80% win rate added $3,900 to an existing Over position in a thin market.

  • This bettor has won 80% of 364 resolved trades and earned $104,354 in P&L.
  • They added $3,900 to an existing Over 3.5 position, making their total stake roughly $9,600.
  • The trade was over 3.5 at 68%, with the market now near 66% and only $1,094 in 24-hour volume.

$3,900 on Over 3.5 | Wallet win rate: 80%

Top Holders

  1. 0xd4c3...60d9 Outcome 63685620, $5,729 (80% win rate)
  2. 0x8c0f...ae40 Outcome 63685620, $5,544 (83% win rate)
  3. 0x8b6f...aab3 Outcome 63685620, $150
  4. 0x5d40...ba95 Outcome 63685620, $62
  5. 0x9913...5973 Outcome 63685620, $41 (31% win rate)
  6. 0x8afa...28f0 Outcome 63685620, $27
  7. 0x76d2...99a6 Outcome 63685620, $18 (73% win rate)
  8. 0x1eb9...2e4c Outcome 63685620, $15
  9. 0xb4bf...60f8 Outcome 63685620, $8 (80% win rate)
  10. 0x341d...2995 Outcome 63685620, $8

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Alex Michelsen vs. Daniel Merida Aguilar: Total Sets O/U 3.5

ResolvedUS Open ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar$3,900 tracked1 signalTennisSportsGames

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Michelsen and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. If the match is played to completion, this market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of sets played equals or exceeds 4, and to "Under" otherwise. A set counts as played once it has begun, even if it is not played to completion. A super tie breaker is considered as one (1) set. If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution. If a player retires, withdraws, is defaulted, or is disqualified, or the match otherwise begins but is not completed, this market will resolve based on any outcome that was already unequivocally determined at the time play stopped. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the match been played to completion using the minimum number of additional sets required. For example, for a line of 2.5, if play stops with the players at one set each, completing the match would have required at least one additional set, resulting in at least 3 sets played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. If neither outcome was already determined at the time play stopped, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled, or has not been completed by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless an outcome was already unequivocally determined as described above. The primary resolution source for this market will be official Grand Slam statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “Over 3.5
68¢
58¢
49¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Alex Michelsen vs. Daniel Merida Aguilar: Total Sets O/U 3.5

7d ago

$3,900 on Over 3.5 at 68¢

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