US Open ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
11 signals across 4 markets · $289,289 tracked · resolves Sep 11, 2026
Follow prediction-market odds for the US Open ATP match between Alex Michelsen and Daniel Merida Aguilar. The event includes markets on the match outcome and whether the total games will go over or under 38.5, with a sharp bettor recently scaling into the Over and $2,300 in tracked smart money.
Markets (4)
- US Open ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar8 signals · $279,239 tracked
- Alex Michelsen vs. Daniel Merida Aguilar: Total Sets O/U 3.51 signal · $3,900 tracked
- Set Handicap: Michelsen (-2.5) vs Aguilar (+2.5)1 signal · $3,850 tracked
- Michelsen vs. Aguilar: Match O/U 38.51 signal · $2,300 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- 24-wallet linked Michelsen cluster
A large, coordinated Michelsen position from 24 wallets, including five shared funders and a bettor with a strong 76% record, represents notable conviction despite the market now being fully priced.
$223,361Score: 10.5 - Sharp bettor backs the underdog
A proven 79% bettor with serial cross-market activity sold the favorite while holding the underdog, amid a major volume spike, signaling a potentially informed contrarian position.
$1,293Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 5.5 - Elite bettor adds to Michelsen
A highly profitable serial sports trader with an 84% win rate and substantial edge is adding $10,000 to Alex Michelsen at 63%.
$10,000Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 5.4 - Sharp bettor scaling into Over
A highly profitable serial trader with an 80% win rate is adding $2,300 to an Over position in an exceptionally quiet tennis market.
$2,300Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 5.4 - Serial sharp backing Michelsen
A highly profitable serial trader with an 81% win rate made a fresh $4,000 bet amid a 42x volume spike and a sharp move toward Michelsen.
$4,000Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 5.2 - Sharp serial trader buys Aguilar
A highly experienced bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial proven edge made a concentrated $3,850 bet on Aguilar in a thin market.
$3,850Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 4.9 - Sharp bettor scaling into Over
A highly profitable, serial cross-market bettor with an 80% win rate added $3,900 to an existing Over position in a thin market.
$3,900Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 4.9 - Perfect-record bettor adds to Michelsen
A proven serial cross-market bettor with 169 wins from 169 resolved trades is adding $5,000 to an existing Alex Michelsen position at 65%.
$5,000Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 4.7 - Sharp serial trader exits Daniel
A highly profitable serial trader with a 78% win rate is exiting Daniel Merida Aguilar, implying a move toward Alex Michelsen, though the trade appears to be position management rather than a fresh bet.
$3,973Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 4.7 - Sharp bettor scaling into Michelsen
A highly profitable serial trader with an 81% win rate and substantial positive edge is adding $20,281 to Alex Michelsen at 61¢.
$20,281Wallet win rate: 56%Score: 4.7
Top wallets in this event
- 0xbc43c8…96d3$20,281 · 1 market · 1 alert · 56% wins
- 0x9bb1bc…4dbe$11,332 · 1 market · 1 alert · 89% wins
- 0xd3faf1…a26c$10,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 85% wins
- 0xd4c3d2…60d9$6,200 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 80% wins
- 0x49e026…9af1$5,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0x33c96d…6f9a$4,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 81% wins
- 0x9f1561…bdb3$3,973 · 1 market · 1 alert · 79% wins
- 0x0353aa…c2ff$3,850 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
- 0xf9f5ff…ab8c$1,293 · 1 market · 1 alert · 80% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for Michelsen vs. Merida Aguilar?
Polymarket tracks this US Open ATP matchup through markets covering the winner and the match total of 38.5 games. Check the live event page for current prices and implied probabilities.
What is the smart money doing in this tennis market?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,300 in smart money across the event and one signal so far. The latest alert says a sharp bettor is scaling into the Over 38.5 games market.
Which markets are included in the Michelsen vs. Merida Aguilar event?
The event covers Alex Michelsen advancing, Daniel Merida Aguilar advancing, and a match total market set at Over or Under 38.5 games.
When does the Michelsen vs. Merida Aguilar prediction market resolve?
The match was scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 11:00 AM ET. The event is listed as resolving by September 11, 2026, subject to the market’s settlement rules if the match is canceled or no winner is determined.