Part of: SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?

If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,405.

Categories: Tech, SpaceX, Culture, Science, Big Tech, Elon Musk

Notable Trades

Serial trader scales into Yes

A serial cross-market trader with 1,695 resolved bets added $2,405 to Yes in a thin market, including a sizable purchase at 31¢, though their historical record does not show a strong odds-adjusted edge.

This bettor has 1,695 resolved trades and $67,000 lifetime profit, with 71% winners.
The $2,405 position exceeded five times the market’s 24-hour volume in a thin order book.
A substantial Yes purchase at 31¢ has since repriced near 86%, indicating strong conviction, though the bettor’s 79¢ average winning price tempers the edge case.

$2,405 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%