This bettor wins 78% of their trades across 718 resolved markets and is up $120k lifetime They bought No at 48¢ while the market was making a sharp 38-point move beyond its prior range The trade is small at about $993, but it came from a wallet with a repeat cross-market pattern in the same event

Part of: Elon Musk # tweets April 23 - April 25, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,031.

Categories: Culture, Politics, Tweet Markets, Rewards Automation 200 4.5 50

Notable Trades

96% win-rate serial bettor

A serial cross-market bettor with a 96% win rate bought No and the market moved sharply in their favor, making this a notable track-record-driven signal despite the small size.

This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades across 489 bets and has traded over $4.1M across 149 events.
Their buy pushed or caught a 39-point move toward No, and the price is now 92¢ versus their 87¢ entry.
This is a fresh, directional bet from a proven cross-market trader, not routine profit-taking.

$1,038 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%

78% win-rate bettor

A high-volume, historically profitable bettor with a 78% win rate bought No at 48¢ as this Elon tweet-count market was breaking out, making it a modest but followable signal despite the small size.

This bettor wins 78% of their trades across 718 resolved markets and is up $120k lifetime
They bought No at 48¢ while the market was making a sharp 38-point move beyond its prior range
The trade is small at about $993, but it came from a wallet with a repeat cross-market pattern in the same event

$993 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 38121274, $67,707
0x3f0c...3fd7 — Outcome 80650081, $10,000 (47% win rate)
0x35f3...cfd0 — Outcome 80650081, $3,153
0xbfb5...3f64 — Outcome 80650081, $2,000
0xb06a...52f5 — Outcome 80650081, $1,973
0x7c7e...3b66 — Outcome 80650081, $1,599
0x2b89...1ca8 — Outcome 80650081, $1,500
0x90f1...72c6 — Outcome 80650081, $1,500
0x988b...459c — Outcome 80650081, $1,400
0xe3ad...7892 — Outcome 80650081, $1,359

Related Theses

No Iran peace deal

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Musk tweets 140 to 159

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No US-Iran peace deal

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Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?

ResolvedElon Musk # tweets April 23 - April 25, 2026?$2,031 tracked2 signalsCulturePoliticsTweet MarketsRewards Automation 200 4.5 50

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 23 12:00 PM ET to April 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.